Oh no! We're selling too many magazines!

Years ago, I used to hold a fancy-sounding rank in a very small publishing company. I was the Assistant Editor of Australian Commodore and Amiga Review (which later became just Australian Amiga Review), and Australian PC Review, and Australian Multimedia and Desktop Video.

Given that the editorial staff of those magazines consisted of (a) the editor and (b) me, my job title wasn't actually that big of a deal. But working in a teeny-tiny publishing company certainly does acquaint you very firmly with the strange economics of the paper publishing industry.

People keep banging on about how much better Web publishing is than paper publishing because of immediacy and feedback and editability and lack of arbitrary article size limits and blah blah blah. All of that is true, but Web publishing would be worth doing even if it didn't have any of those other advantages, especially compared with the magazine arm of paper publishing. That's because magazine publishers usually destroy more than half of what they print.

No, seriously. They do.

An ordinary newsstand magazine, you see, is printed at great expense in a huge and impressive building somewhere and then distributed, at similarly great expense, to all of the newsstands. The idea is to put, on each newsstand, the exact number of magazines that people are actually going to want to buy from that venue.

Except, of course, you have very close to no idea how many magazines a given newsstand is actually going to sell.

Your distribution company will have a vague idea, and they may even be kind enough to tell you what that idea is. But sale numbers vary widely all the time, because people who definitely want the magazine every week/month/whatever will probably subscribe (more about that in a moment). So newsstand sales are, usually, unpredictable.

The worst-case scenario for a publisher is that a particular newsstand has plenty of visitors who'd like to buy your magazine, but you didn't send enough there. Your mag sells out in the first day, and all subsequent customers get annoyed trying to find your product, then give up and, perhaps, forget about you altogether.

In order to avoid this, magazines make sure every newsstand receives an oversupply of magazines. Since you don't know with very much accuracy how many magazines any newsstand's going to need in any given month, though, you have to send them all a lot of magazines.

When I was involved in the business, this meant that if you sold more than half of the magazines you printed, a significant number of newsstands were likely to be running dry. I don't know whether it's gotten any better since. I doubt it.

Now, if you tell someone "if we're selling more than 50% of our print run, it's practically certain that we're not selling as many as we could" then they're likely to look at you and say "duh". But if you go on to explain to them that this means you need to print 20% more magazines in order to raise your sales by 7%, they'll probably back away slowly and try to find an exit.

Yet this is how the magazine publishing industry works.

Magazines that don't get sold are, usually, pulped - though small publishers invariably end up with a garage full of back issues, because they can't bear to destroy all of the old mags and they May Still Come In Handy.

Most old magazines are, of course, actually worth close to nothing. If you don't sell 'em in the month they were printed, you might as well make pinatas out of them.

(Every single magazine you print, though, counts towards your "circulation" figures. Remember that whenever you hear some mag or newspaper boasting about their circulation of 500,000 or whatever; unless they've got tons of subscribers, it's likely that at least half of those mags or papers never make it into the hands of a reader.)

This is why publishers are so very very eager to sell subscriptions, and why subscriptions can, often, actually be a very good deal. If a publisher's factored a 60% pulping rate into the price of their magazine, then they're likely to be happy to deeply discount that price for subscribers in return for 12 (or whatever) guaranteed sales.

Subscribers also give a publisher some other ways of making money.

The income from a subscriber is front-loaded, you see. It arrives in a lump at the beginning of the subscription. But the outgoings are evenly spread over the period of the subscription, which is likely to be at least a year.

So if your publishing business is on the way up, a subscriber is a neat little tax dodge.

You get the income at the beginning and pay tax on it in that financial year, but the year after (when you're presumably making more money, and thus likely to be paying more tax per dollar of income) you can still book your subscribers as liabilities.

One of the staple tricks in "creative accounting" is shifting income and outgoings around so that, as far as the tax man's concerned, you're making money whenever it'll do the least harm and paying it out whenever it'll give the most benefit. Magazine subscriptions practically force a publisher to do that.

Subscribers are also great if your publishing business is on the way out. You still get the money at the outset - which, if you're teetering on the brink, is a very good thing. But then, if you decide to give up on the whole enterprise, you can just stiff your subscribers for however many issues remain outstanding. It's a vanishing liability.

Publishing houses that retire a magazine but have a stable of others normally give their subscribers the chance to roll their remaining subs over into some other magazine. Or they may even - gasp! - offer a REFUND.

But when a small publisher folds, they can just take the (remaining) money and run, secure in the knowledge that there's not likely to be a class action lawsuit from Disgruntled Subscribers To Very-Fluffy-Rabbit-Fancier Magazine Who Just Signed Up For A 48-Issue Sub, God Damn It.

And that, gentle reader, is exactly what the company I worked for did.

If we hadn't, I doubt I would have ended up being stiffed, myself, for a mere four digits worth of wages.

Protest votes

I think a significant amount of the awfulness (warning: bad language, possibility of blinding reflections from Colin Mochrie's head) of the advertising industry comes from the fact that it's never made much sense.

Internet advertising is a great deal more quantifiable than TV, radio and print ads (which isn't to say that Internet ads are very quantifiable; it's just that before that everyone was really making up numbers). But just because you know the quantity doesn't mean you have a clue about the quality.

Advertisers used to be billed according to some vague idea of how many people saw their ad, whether those people cared about it or not. Now advertisers can opt to pay only when someone clicks on an ad. And that's opened up a whole new can of worms.

Take the Google ads on this site, for instance. I get paid when (or, more realistically, if) you click them. Google will be cross with me, though, if I tell you to click them. They would, in fact, prefer you not to click the ads if you have anything but the purest of motives.

Whenever anybody clicks on an ad when they are not actually interested in doing whatever it is that the advertiser wants them to do (usually, buy something), that's click fraud. Maybe "fraudulent" clickers are doing it to make money for a site that they like (or, in the purest form of click fraud, a site they own), or maybe they're doing it to hurt someone they don't like.

Or both.

This issue becomes quite important when you consider how much money people spend for some pay-per-click ad campaigns.

Google's AdWords system, for instance, lets advertisers bid for particular keywords. Basically, when a given keyword appears in a Google search or on a page that runs Google ads, then whoever's bid the most for it gets their ad displayed. Lower bidders, if any, get their ads displayed lower in the list. You can bid any amount you like - I'm sure there are zillions of bottom-feeders who've bid a few cents for all kinds of popular keywords - but if there are a few higher bidders who haven't hit their budget limit, your ad will never be seen.

Google's Keyword Tool is free to use whether or not you've got any kind of Google account. It lets you pretend you're interested in some keywords and see the estimated cost per click (CPC) for them.

Mesothelioma is a favourite of ambulance-chasing lawyers; as I write this, Google's estimated CPC for that keyword alone is a hefty $US14.36. "Mesothelioma attorneys" was $US25.87.

"Debt consolidation" can be perfectly valid, but is often a big fat scam. "Debt consolidation chicago" was estimated at $US30.92 when I checked.

Oh, and name a scam, and it'll carry a healthy price per click. "White powder gold", for instance, is alleged to be a miraculous substance which is produced by no-kidding alchemy; it's bid up to around the eight US dollar per click mark, as I write this.

Herbalife? At least a few bucks a click - heck, the misspelled "herballife" is $US3.73, perhaps reflecting the value to multilevel marketers of customers who aren't too bright.

Ultrasonic pest repellers do not work. But the term "ultrasonic repeller" will still cost you around three bucks a click.

I was initially disappointed by the bids for terms relating to various bogus fuel saving gadgets ("water powered car" was only 52 cents). But then I found "gas pills", which are as stupid as they sound and cost a not-too-shabby $US1.42.

When you can cost someone several dollars just by clicking an ad, it becomes tempting to do so. Just do a Google search for whatever you least like, see if the Sponsored Links include an ad for someone who's trying to sell it to you, click the ad. Bing - money will now be moved from them to Google.

Better yet, find a page that has Google ads on it and is against whatever you least like, and click any ads on it that're from people trying to say the opposite.

The Google ads on Theodore Gray's Periodic Table Table site, for instance, are often weird quacky stuff. Look at a page for a toxic metal and you'll often find an ad from someone eager to find it in your body with a bogus test and/or remove it from your body with a bogus treatment, and at the moment his hydrogen page seems to have attracted a lot of bogus hydrogen power ads. Google reserve the right to just not accept clicks that they consider to be fishy in some way, but there's no way for them to tell whether someone clicking on a Creationist ad on a page about evolution is doing it out of genuine interest or not.

So, with just a click, you can cast your own vote against any advertiser. And if you only click one ad, and that ad wasn't presented in a way that contravenes any of the ad network's rules, then it's singularly unlikely that your click could be told, in any way, from that of a perfectly genuine shopper.

When payments per click are in the single-digit cents, such a vote doesn't matter much. When they're in the double-digit dollars, it does.

I can't wait to see how the next brilliant idea in advertising will go wrong.

(Incidentally, affiliate programs that only pay out when someone buys something avoid this problem. I could put flashing scrolling CLICK HERE!!!!!1! exhortations around my links to Photonlight.com or any one of Ron Toms' various and delectable sites, and all that would happen would be that they'd be somewhat taken aback. They don't pay me a penny if the clicker doesn't become a customer. My Aus PC Market sponsorship ads on Dan's Data, though, are pay-per-click. So don't go clickin' on them like crazy just because you want me to be rich; all that'll happen is that they'll ignore your IP address and/or reduce the amount they pay per click. Donations, of course, are always welcome!)

I don't know whether he's said it yet

I could almost certainly have spent five minutes doing something more productive than this.

But it was, as usual, fun.

The original image was this one:

Sparkler bomb

Wrong Words

When you work with something every day, you're likely to end up with at least some strong opinions about it.

I work with words every day, so I have some strong opinions about them.

I don't think I'm unduly picky about spelling and grammar. A lot of word-workers get very upset about the use of American words in Commonwealth English, or vice versa, for instance. But I frequently mix US English terms into my largely Commonwealth writing, when they make more sense.

"Flashlight", for example, is just a better word than "torch". Its meaning is clearer. And "torch" can, of course, continue to be used when someone's referring to oxy-acetylene or oily-rag-on-a-stick.

I still spell "analog" as "analogue", but I don't feel very good about it. It's stilly silly [dang it - a typo in a post about word-pickiness... now I'm going to hell].

I was happy when most Australian publications finally decided to stop spelling "jail" in the ridiculous English way. The English spelling is like a real life example of the ghoti principle.

(The ludicrous Frenchified "programme" is also dying out in Australia, thank goodness.)

Yes, I'm annoyed by dumb apostrophe placement and have made reference to Bob's Quick Guide to the Apostrophe in the past, but apo'strophe's in the wrong place hardly ever damage the meaning of a sentence. They just make it a bit harder to read.

The growing plague of dangling modifiers is much more likely to cloud the actual meaning of what people say. As Clive James pointed out in an essay in a magazine which I read because I'm frightfully erudite and, let's face it, better than most of you, "At the age of five, his father died" is comprehensible once you stop and go back over it again. But if the same mistake lurks in "At the age of eighteen, his father died", you're likely to cruise right on through and get entirely the wrong idea.

(Update: That essay's online now, here.)

But I'm not too bothered by that, either.

There are some things, however, up with which I will not put, even if they don't actually do any harm to the meaning of the sentences where they're used.

Take, for instance, the word "hobbiest".

I can accept that people without a strong grasp of the many and varied rules of English word construction could come up with that word when they meant to say "hobbyist". And it doesn't blur meaning when it's used. It's not as if you're ever going to be wondering whether the writer actually meant to indicate someone who was hobbier than thou.

But it's ugly-ugly-ugly and it sticks in my brain and it hurts me. And it's bloody everywhere (note that it actually only appears in links to Bill Beaty's quirky and excellent Science Hobbyist site, if you don't count one comment on his guestbook).

"Hobbiest" is in dire danger of becoming an accepted way to spell the bloody word.

A similar, less common, but to my mind even more horrid word: "Turrent".

Meaning "turret".

Found, disturbingly often, on pages where "hobbiest" is also used.

It's a conspiracy, I tell you.

And, finally, could the marketer who decided that the term "in store" or, joy of joys, "instore" needed to be included in every second advertisement please step forward?

Thank you so very much. You were right, of course; before your brilliant innovation, there was no way to convey to an audience the information that the product shown in the advertisement was actually available for sale! However did commerce survive, before you came along?

It's high time you claimed your reward. They're waiting for you just through there.

Erroring out

I found this page, about a diligent attempt to turn Internet Explorer 7 into a completely unusable mess, quite entertaining.

(Note Slashdot discussion, with many +5 Insightful comments about how this doesn't prove anything and it's all stupid and OH MY GOD WE'RE ARGUING IN FAVOUR OF INTERNET EXPLORER AHHH AHHH NOOOOOOOO. I did like the term "Typhoid User", though; the concept has occured to others.)

Anyhoo, the screenshot at the beginning of that piece, of IE6 clogged into postage-stamp-itude by umpteen toolbars and search boxes and juggling monkeys, reminded me of this classic screenshot. Which, in turn, reminded me of what NoteTab looked like when I had every file on my site open, for some reason, a while ago.

(Yes, Dan's Data is a flat-file site. I change something on every page, I upload 30Mb. Uphill both ways, in the snow.)

I love goofy screenshots. The old "Windows 95-NT horror gallery.." (yes, with two .s) was a favourite of mine; The Internet Archive has a partial copy of that long-dead page. [UPDATE: It lives again, here!)

Fortunately, after something of a drought, The Most Excellent Daily WTF has well and truly picked up the sill-screenshot baton (click the "Previous article" links for many more editions of Pop-Up Potpourri).

Bonus: Doncha all love the inability of (recent versions of) Microsoft Word to save a plain text file without popping up a warning every time? And I do mean every time.

Bonus bonus: One that I just discovered while optimising images for this post. In Photoshop's ImageReady-"Powered" Save For Web dialog, if you're in PNG-save mode and select "Auto" in the "Colors" box, then click one of the little arrows next to it, you get this:

Some kind of Not A Number error would seem to be more appropriate.

Awesome.

I know it's childish...

...and so 1997, but I derive considerable enjoyment from punishing people who direct-link to my images without permission.

Like (NSFW, now) these people (screen grab).

Until recently, that was a picture of a keyboard.

See also (SFW).

(The, um, hippopotaduck in that second image is a picture I myself took, which is not the usual way this game plays out. Yes, I am aware of the irony involved when, as usually happens, Site A complains about Site B hotlinking its images by replacing those images with more amusing ones, which Site A have themselves ripped off from Site C. But at least they're not hotlinking them.)

I guess I could set the server to block direct links, but I want people to be able to hotlink my images when I send out a new article announcement; I don't mind if their news page uses my pic directly, or if they copy it to their own server. And I'm not that honked off when people use my server's bandwidth to show my picture on their site. It's not as if it actually does cost me any perceptible money, most of the time.

But it's still rude, and it's fun to put pictures of big hairy men playing with balloons, or whatever, on their site as retribution.

About three years ago, there was a Web site called Hardware Cafe that ripped off a bunch of images. They'd post news from one site, and use announcement images that were all from another, loaded right off that other site's server, as if nobody would notice. It was crazy.

Various other site owners got together to make replacement images, to express the communal nature of our disapproval of this behaviour. My picture (maybe NSFW, I guess) was a tour de force of comic brilliance, and everybody else thought that was a pretty good idea and imitated me, so there was a Festival of the Middle Finger at Hardware Cafe shortly afterwards. The only screen I grabbed of the defaced site was this one, though.

Hardware Cafe was part of a site network called Invision Gaming, which "WAS the future of the internet". The hwcafe.com and ivnonline.com domains still exist, but they belong to completely different people now.

I wonder if there's a sort of horror movie situation, here. You move, all unknowing, into a domain whose previous occupant (I'm getting tired of saying it, but "NSFW"...) was a monster who died a violent death...

Sometimes, in the night, the server moans.

(Do I even need to link to Rob Cockerham's classic Image Lifting Impostor Prank page, now? Oh, OK.)